Rise to Resistance

On a day like today it's very easy to see all that green and want to jump in with both feet and forget about where we are coming from.  Granted, if you're swing or day trading today's move created opportunity.  But for those not interested in the short term thrills this market has been offering recently, it's important to keep the bigger picture in mind.  Despite today's thrilling move to the upside (or so it seemed thrilling to CNBC), the market is still seeking a bottom and today's move only gets us to first levles of resistance.  Nothing more than that for now.  Let's not get too excited yet longs.. there is much work to do.

There is room to run yet before that resistance level is met, so we'll probably get some more green tomorrow at the open.  With options expiration it should be an interesting day.  That was a big time move today, but where is the volume to accompany it?  Sure it was higher than yesterday, but not well above average.  Institutions aren't yet putting money to work but the picture for longs is continuing to improve. 

Same story with the S&P.  Some room to run before resistance comes into play.  There is probably enough momentum from oversold conditions to clear that first level of resistance at the 200 day moving average around 1260 and touch the downward trend line at 1270.  I'll be looking for a couple short term short plays there should it happen.